Complex Systems and Geopolitical Notes: Multipolarity, Humanity and Pathways to the 22nd Century

Summary

• At present we face escalating superpower tensions that threaten nuclear conflict. This conceptual exercise compares geopolitical strategies in a multipolar world and projects alternative outcomes into the next century.

• To reduce global harms and ensure the survival of humanity, policy simulations suggest a path (named Path 2 in this study) that progresses in two phases:

1. A policy of building trust based on neutrality, founded on a political commitment to establishing clear definitions of boundaries and limits together with a strong defensive/protective force posture.

2. A transition away from the present legacy system of political management and towards economic management, involving regional community choice and provision, network states and other voluntary arrangements.

3. Economic management also offers a means to de-escalate the puppet leadership problem whereby superpowers in a multi-polar system compete for control over politically-managed nation-states, especially in resource-rich and strategic locations. Moreover, economic management may help mitigate the risks of violence emerging from top-down “state-building” and “peace from the top” approaches which may simply replicate politically-managed entities that perpetuate pathological outcomes within economic systems (also re: Kennedy 2022 b, c, d on political management and in particular, Kennedy 2022f on econobiology).

This is a draft which may be updated from time to time. Details and examples from history are provided in the Appendix.  

Introduction

Setting. We imagine a world with two or more nation-state superpowers as defined militarily, economically, resource control-wise, and to some extent culturally. Although this exercise is presented as theoretical, examples from history as well as hypothetical superpower actions are given in Appendix 1.

Defining Success. Each path has its own objectives with projected vastly different outcomes for humanity; recognizing the potentially catastrophic outcomes cannot be overemphasized.  This exercise is limited to two basic paths: Path 1 is described as unipolarity at all costs, Path 2 is characterized by a striving for trust and neutrality in a multipolar context, and is divided into two future phases, one under political management/politically-managed systems, the other under economic management.

Path 1. Unipolarity at all Costs

This path seeks the progressive overt and covert destruction of competitors in countless ways with the objective being global dominance by one power and the maintenance of unipolar status at all costs.

An interventionist strategy under the guise of global leader/protector together with proclamations of undeniably laudable goals. Unfortunately, in practice this strategy can devolve into policies of “provoke, undermine, destroy” to maintain unipolarity and serve special interests (Eisenhower, 1961). This not only increases the potential for global escalation of violent conflict (Cirillo, Taleb 2016) but engenders widespread distrust, not only for possible rampant interventionism but also for the false pretenses that provide cover for the true agenda.

The global protector role may evolve over time with various overarching pretexts to protect the planet and humanity against threats but that also aim to ensure continuity while serving their special interests financially and undermining superpower competitors.

Global governance may be sought by superficially discarding the nation-state banner but while the superpower retains firm control. For this purpose, an elite group of nation-state minions must be groomed who must display their obedience to various global agendas set by a hegemon while coordinating with transnational corporations and (ostensibly) philanthropic organizations closely aligned with a superpower.  Eventually, a globally-focused military and law enforcement is rolled out to punish any challenges to unipolarity and established global control agendas. 

Regardless of the stated noble objectives, the pursuit of unipolarity at all costs under politically-managed systems is in practice likely to lead to violence and loss of life from the execution of these global agendas as examined in the projections below.

Note that a professed role of protector in the context of unrelenting dominance-seeking is distinct from acting protectively as a security provider in economic management, as is sketched out in Path 2 below.

Projected Consequences

Projections: Comparison of Path 1 to Potential. By 2100 significant reductions relative to potential population and income are likely tragic outcomes of this path.  The deviation from potential suggests a reduction of population, GDP, and GDP per capita by roughly half (estimates ranging between 45% to 62% of potential) as seen in the three charts next.

Data Sources: Macrotrends, Statista.

Chart Detail. The variables population (POP), GDP, and GDP per capital (GDPC) are each divided into alternative scenarios HIST and SIM that correspond to assumptions as follows: HIST is based on historical trends and SIM is based on Path 1 assumptions of increased conflict combined with population control agendas.  The x-axis shows the annual count beginning with year 0 as 2022 and ending with the year 2100. The y-axis shows values for each year as a multiple of the base year’s figure. See Conceptual Assumptions in the next section and Appendix 2 for further details.

Conceptual Assumptions. The simulation assumes both an escalation of conflict leading to loss of life and depopulation under the guise of various ongoing and future agendas including public and “reproductive health” (re: Kennedy, Jr. and Wakefield 2022; Mangiaracina 2024 on infertility agenda). Competitive Escalation of Violence. Although only one superpower may initially be at the forefront of this approach to achieve dominance, the likelihood of brutality and genocidal behavior among and within all superpowers is expected to increase (Cirillo, Taleb 2016), even if only as countermeasures to perceived or real acts of aggression. Coercive Cost Controls. Attempts to ensure the continuity of actuarially bankrupt politically-managed entities and financially ailing transnational corporations (Andrews, et al. 2017) are expected to be part of various forms of population control measures (re: reduction of unfunded pension and health care obligations/liabilities, politically-managed (public) expenditure controls, etc. Re: Kotlikoff 2015; Mitchell 2017). These ostensible public health and other agendas may be imposed by coercive means, violation of bodily sovereignty and lack of informed consent resulting in genocide and infertility (Kennedy, Jr and Wakefield 2022; Kirsch 2022a,b; Wolf 2022; Dowd 2022; McCarthy and Sharav 2023 re: Nuremberg Code violations).  Moreover, an increase in injuries, illness and suffering is anticipated as conflict-provoking policies disrupt economies and infrastructure leading to hunger and famine, lack of basic sanitation and dislocation.  For further details on assumptions see Appendix 2.

Malthusianism (Malthus, 1798, 1815; Winch 1987). Malthusian thinking may be at the root of potentially deadly justifications to reduce population for overriding politically-stated reasons that may shift and evolve over time to mold public opinion. However, Malthusianism largely ignores the consequences of politically-managed systems and policies, as well as the role of economics and the historical record, and as follows:  

(a) Wealth destruction. For example, extraction of income/resources of common citizens (including through currency debasement leading to reduced purchasing power) to be channeled to special interests, or to secure higher prices and profits* for politically-connected business elites by politically engineering a reduction of market supply of their goods and products.

(b) The critical role of the pricing system, prices as a signaling mechanism, and economic calculation (Mises 1920) are also largely ignored (e.g., higher prices tend to discourage the use of a resource, lower prices encourage its use; note the crucial distinction between prices that reflect reality and prices that are distorted by political interventions).  Politically lowering prices through policies that encourage malinvestment and overproduction and losses involve overuse and waste of resources; in contrast, politically raising prices by causing supply and supply chain disruptions, or price-fixing/price controls can in extreme cases cause shortages, hunger and even famine.

(c) Unforeseen advances in technological progress that increase productivity of capital (Marx* 1867: McAfee, Andrew 2019), In the 19th century, previously unattainable increases in horsepower (emphasis: “horse”) and agricultural productivity were achieved by technological means not necessarily envisaged by Malthus (and Edward West) despite their immensely popular thesis and dire predictions (e.g. Haber-Bosch process; James Watt and steam engine commercialization, etc.).

*Notes

1.Note on “profits.” To clarify, this is not a condemnation of profit per se but rather highlights the fundamental problem of politically-managed distortions of profitability and costs to deliver benefits to special interests in exchange for political power and support (re: pathological profits and wealth via political management, see Kennedy 2022f on econobiology).. The special interest beneficiary of the profits is able to avoid the costs that are associated with the benefit, thereby artificially(politically) raising profits (re: Kennedy 2022 b,c,d; e.g., legal liability shield or other protections for businesses that produce harmful products, or the spraying of  toxic chemicals on crops to increase yields and profitability, posing dangers for consumers, etc., O’Toole 2022). 

2. Although it may be considered contradictory that Karl Marx would be cited as recognizing the essential importance of productivity of capital accumulation in economic growth (Abramovitz 1956; Kuznets 1966; Denison 1974; note that “productive capital” typically refers to tools, equipment, and machinery). The productivity of labor that derives from capital is generally recognized as a source of rising incomes as labor and capital are complements; despite their fundamental differences, this is a point upon which Marx and economists could be expected to agree (re: Mitchell 2018).  It is recognized that while incomes may rise for those who remain employed the troubling question of unemployment arises, especially relevant with technological advances such as artificial intelligence and robotics (Rifkin 1996; Kurzweil 2001; re: singularity).  Marx’s critical departure from economics stemmed from how the additional worker productivity from capital was to be (coercively) distributed between the capitalists and the workers. In political management, justification for forcible redistribution of incomes has arisen from this concept, including through uncontrolled debt issuance and central bank creation of money to further political objectives (re: via debt monetization). Counter-productively, these policies reduce the real purchasing power of the working class through inflation while benefiting asset holders and debtors as special interests. The resulting distortions of unstable and unsustainable politically-managed systems can lead to repeated crises and catastrophic outcomes including violent conflict as noted in this study as well as in history (Mises 1931; Ropke 1936; Barnes 1953; Lofchie 1975; Eicher 1982; Kennedy 1998; Alesina, et al. 2013, Higgs 2013; Sigurjónsson 2015; Mitchell 2017; Kennedy 2022b, c, d).

Path 2. Building Trust and Neutrality

Basics. Trust and neutrality are seen as inextricably linked. To clarify, this “neutral” position does not imply unilateral reduction of military strength (or for  individuals, unilaterally reducing self-defense capabilities), or refusing to take a stance on geopolitical and geoeconomic matters. Rather, neutrality is based on clear definitions of boundaries and limits in various domains together with at minimum a strong defense posture. This will be elaborated upon furth in the Analytical Framework section below.

Defining Success. Key elements of this path towards trust and neutrality involve the adoption of basic principles to uphold and respect the following:

(a) Security and self-protection at the national, local, and individual level; note that both individual/bodily security and national/regional border security are viewed as necessary for the success of the other.

(b) seeking alternative approaches to avoid harms, death, injury and suffering of innocent civilians and non-combatants (and combatants alike wherever possible).

(c) voluntary (non-coercive) choice and interactions in productive activity and trade; property rights (as the basis for all rights, including the right of self-ownership).

(d) freedom of expression* and communications,* the right* to privacy and the right to be left alone.

Clarifications and Controversies

Fundamental concepts highlighted here include natural law, constitutional law, human rights, and rights. Also see Bastiat (1850); Napolitano (2006, 2022).  An important source of confusion may exist regarding natural rights, human rights and the term “rights” as commonly used in political rhetoric; these should be clearly distinguished. A possible oversight is that the exercise of some claimed “rights” that in practice may end up negating the rights of others, involving acts of coercion, physical violence, confiscation of property or conscription to obtain access to what the “right” guarantees (United Nations 1948). Deceptive “Rights.” For example, “the right to a job” while well-meaning, could in practice mean that someone be physically forced to employ others against their will to enforce that “right.” A voluntary approach without compulsion would be to “foster an (economic) environment that is conducive to gainful employment for all.”  Also, citizens must be aware of other possibly unintentional but dangerous misuses of the term “right” such as “everyone has the “right” to digital (or other) identification” (re: control grid tools, vaccine passports. compulsory digital/non-physical cashless currency systems, microchipping, etc.).

Natural and Constitutional law.  A clarification should be made that it is possible for a law to be enshrined into a constitution that violates natural law* and therefore the two bodies of law are not necessarily compatible. Under a system of political management, special interest pressures (including political parties and action groups) to bypass natural and constitutional law are considered inevitable and possibly irreversible once instituted. While the judicial system in theory is expected to allow citizens to seek redress and rectify cases of anti-constitutionality, it is highly likely that under political management many adjudicators will be given priority for positions based on political reasons rather than for their allegiance to natural law and the Constitution.  Moreover, law enforcement chiefs (elected or appointed) may despite their oath to the Constitution may be pressured to implement political directives that violate natural law and the Constitution or lose their jobs or chances for re-election. On historical rulings contributing significantly to the erosion of conformity with the Constitution in U.S., see McGlinchey (2024); e.g., Helvering v. Davis (1937) re: the General Welfare clause; Wickard v. Filburn (1942) re: the Commerce clause: Note that "regulate" is "to make regular" as in facilitating free trade among the states by preventing interstate trade barriers). Also see Woods 2010; Sansone 2024, re: Virginia and Kentucky resolutions, Joint Resolution of the Legislature of Wisconsin, March 19, 1859, in connection with the U.S. Supreme Court reversal of the decision of the Supreme court of Wisconsin).

Notes regarding natural law.  Natural law is assumed to exist by virtue of our humanity, regardless of whether it is documented in writing somewhere. The Bill of Rights (United States of America) may be viewed as an attempt at articulating natural rights or natural law (re: Napolitano 2022b), as well as certain articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (United Nations 1948) (excepting those that imply negating the natural rights of others as mentioned above). ). Property rights (re: United Nations 1948, Universal Declaration Article 17) as the basis for all rights including the right of self-ownership and by extension the natural right of security of person and self-defense (Hallbrook 2014; Njoya 2024). Regarding medical experimentation on humans and violations of bodily sovereignty, see Washington (2008); Reverby (2009) and the Nuremberg Code re: McCarthy and Sharav (2022). On natural law and societal structures see Passio (2021); on theory of universal values see Lewis (2015). Regarding a possible universality underlying the principles of nature see Kennedy (2022e; re: econobiophysics).

For an exposition of the legal foundations of natural rights and natural law, see Kinsella (2023); also see Spooner (1882). For further discussion and resources on concepts of alternative legal and justice systems, see Kennedy (2022f; re: econobiology).

It is recognized that the right to freedom of speech is subject to qualifications such as contractual breaches (which may include implied contracts) which is tied to property rights as the basis of all rights.  For example, freely expressing oneself (e.g., blocking the stage, interrupting the movie or game, etc.) in front of spectators in a manner that does not conform to the rules and conditions set by the property owner for its use, as well as what was agreed upon or expected by those who contracted (e.g., gave up some of their owned resources, in other words, paid for tickets, etc.) solely to enjoy a movie or sports event in accordance with the owner’s rules for use of the property. An exception might be to “freely express” a legitimate warning to the spectators of imminent danger (e.g., fire, collapse of the stands, etc.).  Setting aside the foundational matter of the legitimacy of property rights of the state, for a clarification on legal public/private property ownership distinctions as related to free speech see Napolitano (2022a).

A controversial issue also may be the extent of freedom of communications especially in a world of online digital communications with algorithmic controls: While the individual is left “free to communicate” it is possible that the network or platform forbids their message from being communicated to others due to feared loss of advertising revenues, and in some cases, money may have been paid to the network or platform to suppress the information. Although each case may be complex and contractual obligations may have notable exceptions, the ethics and dire consequences of intentionally blocking communications regarding life-saving information are evident, such as information about fatal harms suffered from a product, or a request for evacuation/rescue from a life-threatening situation or location.

Analytical Framework

The analysis of this Path 2 addresses the two distinct systems of management: Political and Economic Management.

Path 1 was discussed in the previous section and is predominantly a feature of politically-managed systems to achieve dominance in a multipolar world, regardless of the harms inflicted.

Path 2 presents a path of trust and neutrality under two systems of polarity:

1. Positive polarity as characterized by the present legacy system of political management Kennedy 2022 b, c d).  

2. Negative polarity of an economically-managed system (at the global scale this is called geoeconomic management; to clarify this does not involve a system of global governance).

Path 2, System 1: Legacy System of Political Management. In a politically-managed multipolar world building trust together with a strong defensive/protective force posture (note that the ability to pivot to offensive posture cannot be dismissed) are viewed as essential. Trust and neutrality are seen as linked and founded on a commitment to neutrality. Neutrality. To clarify, this “neutral” position is not in the sense of taking no position on any matter* or unilateral reduction of military strength (or for individuals unilaterally reducing self-defense capabilities). Broadly stated, this neutrality is based on clear definitions of boundaries and limits in various domains, including property rights, geography as well as a clear separation of commercial and political matters as best as possible, while recognizing the value of free commerce (Paul 2007) towards building prosperity.  Clarification of boundaries are determined by bilateral and/or multilateral negotiation and agreements among the political entities/powers concerned; more than one jurisdictional level within nation-state superpowers may be involved (Kennan, Mearsheimer 2012); ; also see Brzezinski 2016; Whitney 2023.

It should be emphasized that there is no anticipated role for an overriding global governing body which risks being hijacked, and which threatens to escalate conflict as part of a next-stage battle for control of such a global body to subjugate others.

Neutrality does not imply ignoring human rights violations by one or more of the superpowers or other nation-states/colonial powers. As part of long-term resolution, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the historical facts and to examine how the human rights violations, if true, came about. For example, were these violations a government counter-response to a real or perceived infiltration or insurgency backed by external forces? This is a potential feature of Path 1 as detailed above.

Resolution of human rights issues may involve various approaches depending on the situation: Putting a stop to external interventions and infiltration in internal affairs/domestic political management is part of the trust and neutrality path described here. Relocation or rescue/extractions may be necessary to protect persecuted individuals or groups, although it is acknowledged that serious complications can arise when the facts reveal that the supposedly oppressed group is part of armed insurgent factions backed by other superpowers.

Although not limited just to human rights issues, a key role is seen for truly independent groups or teams of transnational and international attorneys to address multiple types of grievances and violations of rights (Boyle 2022); this does not imply the need for establishing a global government institution to accomplish this, which would lead to capture and monopoly control by special interests including nation-states seeking superpower status by this “back-door” means.

The legacy system of political management is unlikely to reduce judicial bias as court systems are politically managed and a monopoly of the state. Consequently, adjudication choice that drives a market for neutral adjudication is seen as critical components towards achieving unbiased solutions and justice (also see the section below titled Review of Economic Management and Kennedy 2022 b and c).  

Building Trust. It should not be assumed that trust can ever fully be achieved in any system; at best trust is built incrementally over time through extensive experience with one’s adversaries’ or ostensible allies’ historical and ongoing behavior.  In a politically-managed system this is expected to be more difficult to achieve, requiring a constant commitment that can override the pressures of special interests.  For example, under political management, to abide by a trust doctrine to resolve a geographic dispute, adversaries must be fully committed to agree (even if painstakingly) to establishing the intricacies of acceptable boundaries and respecting them as best as possible, with mechanisms in place to immediately resolve perceived or real transgressions.  Maintaining clear and ongoing communications is a key element of this process of trust-building.

To contrast with a simple example of an economic solution for a geographic dispute, mutual agreements may be negotiated for the purchase and development of disputed land or property via business relationships rather than pursuing continued military aggression. The issue remains of how to preserve border or surrounding security to be addressed at some point.

Transition. Ultimately the transition away from the legacy system of political management and towards economic management (on a global scale this becomes geoeconomic management) will be necessary for a self-correcting (i.e., a self-regulating system of negative polarity) sustainable civilization and the survivability of humanity. For a repetition of points made in Kennedy 2022c regarding this transitional phase, see Appendix 3.

Path 2, System 2: Geoeconomic Management. Trust and neutrality are viewed as a natural product of an economically-managed system. This is not to say that disputes and conflicts would never occur in an economic system as these are common between businesses and individuals. However, the negative polarity of the system has a self-correcting bias such that when a problem arises there is a tendency for forces to be set in motion to counteract or resolve the problem; in contrast, the trajectory of politically-managed systems tends to perpetuate or escalate problems to serve special interests that have contributed to political managers and their political parties (detailed in Appendix 1 and in Kennedy 2022f on econobiology).

Recall that at the global scale this is called geoeconomic management; to clarify, economic management practiced internationally does not involve a system of global government for implementation; as noted earlier, formation of a global entity is a potential stealth means for a nation-state to achieve superpower dominance. For background on the negative polarity of economic systems see Kennedy 2022 b, c, d.

Review of Economic Management

This is a review of features of economic management as originally presented in Kennedy 2022b,c and detailed in Kennedy 2022f on econobiology (see Table 1 and the Notes to Table 1).

Introduction. Removal of legal monopolies (regional, judicial, commercial, educational, other) allow residents and consumers the choice among competing alternatives allows economically-managed societies to function. Technological tools may be a driving force of the development of economic systems that progressively emerge outside of politically-managed systems.

Choice of Regional/Community Management Providers: Depending on the community service bundle and other contractual arrangements involved, periodic residential fees, subscriptions, or memberships are paid to regional community providers (RCPs) or regional management providers (RMPs). Some communities may be entirely self-managed and self-owned and incur the management expenses themselves and the costs absorbed by the resident owners.  Since payment for these management services is directly linked to the choice of provider, or based on ownership interests*, the concept of “voting” for the provider disappears. Communities are expected to vary widely in nature, including coops, communes, resorts, self-governing homeless encampments, communities of faith or practice, communities with no particular focus, maritime communities, and eventually perhaps extra-terrestrial communities.  Note on Self-Owned and Managed Communities: Ownership may also eventually be linked to digital communities and tokens, with fractionalized interests.

Choice of Security Services (typically through Providers): The community/regional manager typically contracts with security services for inside of their geographic area, likely extending outwards to their own border(s); arrangements from local to wide-area security services expands outwards to as far as national borders. Note that border and national security is a critical element of such arrangements.

Monetary/Currency Choice: Consumers choose the currency that best serves their needs (aided by future technological inter-operability. A formal distinction between currency and money is not made here). This is not an argument for the implementation of digital-only cash society which could be a feature of politically-managed attempts at control of societies. The absence of tangibility poses critical risks for security and verifiability of resource ownership (Kennedy 2022 e).  Under economic management, consumers choose which type of currency/cash they wish to use, whether digital, physical or both. 

Consumer Choice Permitted: Removal of legal monopoly controls including regulatory barriers allows consumers to choose from alternatives and competing producers/providers that offer their goods and services to consumers. Reversal of previously increased costs and lack of affordability with increased likelihood of quality improvements.

Adjudication Choice (Public Court System):  Defendants and prosecution decide on the adjudicating judge(s) towards improving the quality of justice (unbiased outcomes via competition for neutral adjudicators; re: neutral adjudication).

Policies and Rule-Making: By the economically managed entities (see Community/Regional Management) for the communities they serve, simply replacing policies established by political management. In lieu of politicians acting as “representatives” for the electorate, attorneys/legal counsel will represent their clients individually and as groups to uphold basic rights and resolve disputes.

Technology’s Central Role. In contrast to the trajectories of political management as detailed above, the technological driving force for change is expected to be directed towards personal solutions that tend to improve options and choices. Industries that are expected to emerge and flourish from an economically centered environment are likely to be grounded in technology-assisted tools and networks towards a variety of consumer-oriented solutions including consumer-residential (community) choice, monetary choice, voluntary personal enhancement, personal defense and protection solutions, neutral adjudication options, etc. that upon broad adoption will drive further technological innovations.

For resources that address elements of economic management see Antonopoulos 2017, Gebel 2018, Srinivasan 2022; also re: intentional communities, permaculture societies, and see Kennedy (2022f; re: econobiology in the Notes to Table 1 on economic systems); also see Smith, C.H. (2022).

In Sum:  In economic systems, while it is not realistic to expect total elimination of societal problems and injustices, the negative polarity of economic management has a built-in counterbalancing/self-correcting dynamic that tends to respond to problems by managing them towards resolution (Kennedy 2022 b,c,d)

Visualizing Geoeconomic Management

Analogy. How does economic management apply to a global context (i.e. geoeconomic management)?  A simple but reasonably understandable analogy is that of a multi-tenant commercial center (mall) or apartment building. In this analogy, the “commercial center/mall” may correspond to a (perhaps somewhat modified) legacy nation-state, province/state or other management entity depending on geographic size and locality.

Communities/Network States as Tenants. The “tenants” within regions can be thought of as individual communities some of which can take the form of network states (Srinivasan 2022) and other structures. These prospective regional “tenants” apply for “residence” or settlement in a geographic area managed by a regional community provider (RCP).  Taxes are replaced by common area management fees (CAMs) common for commercial centers or apartment buildings. The fundamental problem with taxation in legacy political management systems is discussed in Kennedy 2022 b, c. Ownership*. Some communities or states may be self-owned and managed; therefore, CAMs may not exist but the member-owner entity absorbs the costs of community operation. Some communities may already be organically established within the area (e.g., a self-governing homeless encampment) and make special arrangements for their own border security and/or contract with an RCP that covers their area.

*Note. Ownership acquisition may involve communities crowdfunding online and purchasing large tracts of land or real estate as owners and setting up their own management company corresponding to their own RCP; other communities may opt to lease land and real estate within an existing RCP owned by the RCP.

Levels of Security Provision.  Under economic management security services replace the politically-managed global “protector” status as discussed in Path 1: Unipolarity at All Costs.

Multiple levels of security exist: Local (intra-community whereby in each community, in-house security services may be contracted with; Border (regional/RCP area borders) and beyond borders with wide-area security providers patrolling the periphery of the RCPs. The selected RCP provides for border security services for the local community “tenants” within their jurisdiction. Beyond the borders of the RCP, there are likely to be contractual arrangements between multiple RCPs with wide-area security services up to the existing national geographic area. Beyond existing national borders, another level of security, referred to here as transnational security could be expected to emerge. As such a market for reliable regional security develops, key personnel from national military forces may transform a portion of their activities to become providers of these services on a large scale to contractually protect regions and multiple RCPs at the same time. Regional conflict and disputes with other such regional security services may occur and bilateral conflict resolution is needed.

The above discussion is not comprehensive but sketches out how these economically-managed structures might organize and develop over time.

APPENDIX

Appendix 1: Historical View and Observations

In this Appendix, examples of strategies to maintain dominance drawing upon history as well as hypothetical scenarios and observations on the nature of political management/democratic politics are provided.  This discussion is not comprehensive or fully organized as countless variations on approaches to maintain dominance at all costs exist; interpretations may differ on the historical facts.

Moral Authority. The ascension to global governance is more easily justified by a professed moral role as global protector to maintain international security in the face of nuclear Armageddon or to champion the rights and liberties of nation-states and oppressed peoples (re: Wilson 1917; Kennedy 1961).  To emphasize, these goals are laudable, however the means are under scrutiny here. 

Peace from the Top and War Crimes. On the deadly consequences of (possibly well-intentioned) top-down “peacemaking” by political elites/scholars with no skin in the game see Taleb (2018: Chapter 14) and on war and war crimes see Napolitano (2023); Baud (2022); also, re: “state-building” and commentary in the Summary above.

With regards to making the world “safe for democracy” (Wilson 1917), important aspects of the troubling reality of what is referred to as “democratic politics” are discussed briefly next and further in Appendix 1 (A1) of Kennedy 2022f re: econobiology; a summary definition of political management. Also see Hoppe (2022) for a critical perspective.

National Security Threats and Democratic Politics

Democracy is often proclaimed as an overriding goal of political management while dismissing the likelihood that democratic politics can pose a clear and present danger not only to national (regional) security but also to natural law and human rights, even if a constitution is in place to prevent abuses originating from said democratic politics. Sadly, it is not impossible for legislation passed by and incensed or outraged public and democratically-elected representatives to violate human rights as historical examples may attest to. Return on Political Investment. Moreover, as stated above, the pressure of special interests on the elected representatives to whose campaigns they contributed cannot be ignored given potentially outsized financial returns (Clifton 2021; Hartmann 2022; Tullock 1967, 1993; Krueger 1974 re: rent-seeking) and can in some cases sway political management in a direction that is at odds with human rights (e.g., harmful products, war, etc.). It should be added that the benefits may go beyond financial in the case of foreign powers attempting to establish a foothold in the internal political and decision-making affairs of a nation. These powerful financial and political incentives also directly relate to election integrity (i.e., elections versus “selections”) especially in an age of digitization: Granting certain selected individuals positions of power is necessary to guarantee that special interests receive the benefits they have paid for in the form of campaign contributions, etc.  Ideally, the selected individuals would be those that are elected by the populace, but this may not always be possible.

Undermining Security. Another critical concern is the incentive for political managers in democratic politics to manipulate law and undermine societies to gain power as part of the key process of fundraising as well as for the mobilization of potential constituents for their party. This can be a solely domestic process or in coordination with a foreign power or foreign special interests.  Relaxation of border controls to allow increased flow of human trafficking or smuggling, which can be a financial bonanza for the operators and indirectly (through front organizations) raise funds for (domestic) political campaign contributions to influence election outcomes, but that can contribute to the progressive infiltration by outside forces into a nation through the political process. Deliberate withdrawal of law enforcement not only is likely to reduce local/regional security but has benefits for special interests and political managers to seek re-election.  For example, relaxing and eliminating laws on theft can allow organized theft gangs to develop and raise funds to help support the political party. Another variation may be termed “disaster capitalism” (although this may be more accurately described as the alliance between capitalists and political managers; re: corporatism; Tucker 2024) in which democratic politics push for policies that include the withdrawal of law and order, increased leniency and non-prosecution of property crimes and violence in a particular geographic area of a municipality, for example. If this strategy is successful, property values plummet in the area and local or outside interests including real estate entrepreneurs/developers (including enterprising political figures who may have had a hand in these policies) may be able to purchase the properties at a discount.  Then, over time as policies driven by a public concerned by the lack of security return to law and order, the property values may rise and the insiders, among others, may be able to earn small fortunes on the real estate transactions, especially when coupled with tax-advantaged Opportunity Zones (Austin-Fitts 2023) or perhaps certain Special Economic Zones (SEZs).This democratic process can be repeated throughout the country for increased income for insider political managers and their special interests.

Criminalization and Decriminalization in Democratic Politics. A key distinction should be made between the political management of decriminalization and criminalization as vehicles for fund-raising, depending on the activity’s ability to raise funds and support for the party.  For example, the decriminalization of property theft and the criminalization of drugs. In the case of drugs, criminalization may be more profitable politically to maintain the loyalty and financial support of organized drug gangs and cartels as special interests. Decriminalization of activities like this for which there is market demand would likely reduce violence between competing organized gangs fighting for geographic control for the sale of their goods (much like an alcohol distributorship in which competing businesses buy the right to sell in a particular area and no longer need to resort to violence to stake their claim (re: Prohibition era (alcohol), U.S. 1919-1933).

Political Management and Blind Obedience. The military and law enforcement play a crucial role in maintaining an oath to constitutional law that in turn aligns with natural law. However, a feature of   politically-managed systems borne out by the historical record is that the objective can go far beyond essential law and order, with the imposition of tyranny and draconian policies on the citizenry. This can be achieved by the selection and mobilization of forces that tend to mechanistically follow orders without questioning the brutality involved (refer to the discussion on natural law, constitutionality, and rights).  The key caveat is that politically-managed systems retain this extremely dangerous feature (re: Rummel 1997; democide).

Historical Warnings. The grave concern resides in how politically-managed systems may tend to maintain their positive polarity/feedback loop (Kennedy 2022b) to gain power including in the international arena: By sustained and deliberate, potentially deadly provocations to engineer the conditions that can then be claimed to justify more power; in other words, manufacturing crises and fearmongering to create a “need” and public support for unthinkable tyrannical actions. 

Articulated by President Dwight D. Eisenhower a dual threat exists, one from the military-industrial complex* and another from a scientific-technological elite: “…we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, or by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” (Eisenhower, January 17, 1961)

Note: A more recent version and extension of this military-industrial complex (MIC) monicker may be the MICIMATT complex, which can incorporate Congress, the Intelligence community, the Media, Academia, and Think Tanks (McGovern 2024).

More specifically, these political elites may consist of transnational corporations (e.g. defense contractors, pharmaceutical/biomedical and technology firms, or an alliance of such firms) that act as real businesses or fronts, as well as transnational charitable/philanthropic organizations (e.g. NPO, NGOs) that may fundamentally exist to serve themselves and the interests of the superpower via politically-managed arrangements to transfer wealth to themselves through various means, including via  stock acquisition with media-supported market manipulations, the granting of legal immunity and patents (to pay royalties) for potentially harmful products including under the guise of public health. Corporations or organizations (colluding with nation-states) may be directly or indirectly involved in violations of human rights and genocide (Boyle 2005; 2022; also re: gain-of-function research, planned pandemics; on the Nuremberg Code see McCarthy and Sharav 2022 ) or may remain silent in the face of acts that are clearly counter to their own laudable missions.

The problem of polarity (Kennedy 2022 b,c,d) in the context of political management has been dealt with previously but key features can be emphasized here:  Lack of accountability for the consequences of legislation granting legal immunity or enacting deleterious policies on individuals and small businesses that benefit big-box and online retailers or other clients of political managers (e.g., lockdown policies).  In politically-managed systems it is to be expected that special interests should receive a return on their political investments in exchange for their campaign and other politically-related contributions (Kennedy 2022f on econobiology). In the absence of the public’s willingness or ability to be taxed further, the ability to create/debase the currency at will causes economic distortions, wealth inequality and the long-term stealth destruction of citizens’ incomes and savings from inflation. 

Provoke, Undermine and Destroy at All Costs 

Suppression of Historical Facts on Provocations. A foreign adversary may mount a counter-response to perceived (or real) threats to their sovereignty, national or even ethnic integrity (including access to vital resources). However, with a concerted and highly effective propaganda campaign and media cooperation, it is possible for a nation-state provocateur to paint a picture that the retaliating nations-state has acted aggressively without warning in an unreasonable and unprovoked manner (Roosevelt, 1941” Infamy Address”), justifying declaration of war and the professed “necessity” of the horrors that follow. (Also re: Beard 1948; Barnes 1953; Chamberlain 1953; Stinnett 2000; Unz 2023)

Intransigence without regard to Consequence. During conflict, this approach involves refusal to acknowledge or accept certain terms of cease-fire or surrender.  This may be part of a policy of ultimate non-negotiation based on an unnecessarily high bar and/or unreasonable terms that become the justification for the commission of horrendous acts to “punish the enemy and put a stop to the war” despite reasonably viable alternatives (Truman, 1945; re: unconditional surrender). At this stage, the display and exercise of raw power are preferred over and above negotiated settlements or other means to reduce the cost in human lives, including unsuspecting young troops fighting in a proxy war for a superpower, innocent civilians caught in the crossfire, or the victims of damage to vital infrastructure and supply lines for essential food and energy resulting in famine.  To be successful, the strategy must be followed up by suppression of information regarding this decision-making process together with credible justifications for the acts of aggression (including against civilians) as having saved “far more lives” in the end or by dehumanization of the victims (Stimson, 1947; Denson 2020; Doyle 2023; Hornberger 2023; McGlinchey 2023; Gunter 2023) and constant repetition through the educational/schooling process and mainstream/state-controlled media. It should be highlighted that historically the rhetoric surrounding "national security" may also be a pretext for foreign interventionism and imperialist designs.

Regarding perpetuation/escalation of conflict (together with perception management) in history and present, re: Barnes (1953); Cousins, Kennan (1987); Meyssan (2019); Abelow (2022); Baud (2022, 2023); Hudson (2023a,b); Johnstone (2023, 2024); Roberts (2023); Armstrong (2024).

Provocation towards Self-Destruction. Under the guise of regional security, a variation on genocidal tactics can also be intentional provocations to induce an adversary and/or allies to deploy weapons of mass destruction and nuclear war. (re: Kahn 1961; Ellsberg 2018). The consequences of such a strategy are not limited to the adversary and neighbors/allies, but can extend to the provoking superpower’s own population (i.e. national suicide).

The question here is whether there are means to avoid or minimize conflict and death, even in the face of a real aggressor. This does not imply adopting a weak military stance, only that there might be multiple reasonable alternatives, as was discussed in Path 2 in the main text.

Soft-Coup Strategies: Takeover via Backdoor Override

Soft coups and backdoor overrides involve infiltration in various ways to deceive, destabilize or foment distrust, towards eventual seizure of the political apparatus.  This may be led by a superpower coordinating directly or indirectly with special interests/organizations as fronts.  While soft coups may appear to avoid the violence associated with coup d’états/violent takeovers (re: Kinzer 2007; DiLorenzo 2023 re: Hawaii), they nevertheless can introduce instabilities ending in extreme violence and genocide during periods of conflict, transition and when power is fully consolidated; such backdoor takeovers can pose a grave risk to civilian populations of target countries. Also see O’Rourke (2018); Berletic (2024); re: political capture methods and imperialist expansion on behalf of special interest-clients (e.g., multinational corporations) to force open new markets and globalize consumers over local cultures and traditions.

Engineered Chaos and Division. Various types of political operations can provoke escalation of divisions and internal conflict assisted by a controlled mass media (re: divide-and- conquer strategies; driving a wedge within a group to obstruct organic group unity, fomenting conflict, etc.). Examples from history may include: The strategic drawing of geographic boundaries that exacerbates conflict to “justify” future military interventions and arms sales to benefit the military-industrial complex as a special interest client;  sparking public anger through judicial decisions perceived as (or actually) unfair; politicization such that decisions and rewards are made based on power rather than by voluntary individual choices; indoctrination that emphasizes filters of reality causing people to feel justified in targeting innocents by their ethnicity, national origin, race, etc., while ignoring crimes committed by the true perpetrators due to cultivation of  mental “blind spots” (also re: Nehls 2023 on the indoctrinated brain); blame-shifting to cover for actual perpetrators of heinous acts; baiting of opposing groups; propaganda of dehumanization and racism designed to justify violent actions by the state (and its supporters) against targeted citizens or foreigners at home or abroad (Gunter 2023); intentionally fomenting distrust and hatred within the populace by engineering the perception of domestic threats to provoke internal conflict.

Other Special Cases

The following analyses may be somewhat tedious but could be instrumental in saving lives and pursuing justice.

1.Engineered Attacks, Deliberate Security Breaches, and Provocations

In geopolitical and other contexts, reported attacks and atrocities must be closely scrutinized because there are asymmetric political and financial benefits to evoking a powerful public response in favor of military force/violent actions against an alleged "enemy" or targeted group, which may result in massive harm to innocents (re: the crime of collective punishment) and enable unwarranted territorial expansion under a pretext of “establishing buffer zones for security purposes,” etc.  

Special interest clients of political managers may play a key underlying role in this process (i.e., the lobbying of political managers to secure contracts and funding for military/defense contractors, real estate development, the energy industry, mining, fisheries, etc.). Delivering benefits to such special interest clients can be more effectively accomplished by provoking or engineering horrific events and making false claims that serve to justify “retaliatory” actions with tragic consequences that may dwarf the horror of the initial attack.

Definitions.The attack or atrocity results in harm or death to civilians, and/or military personnel and property destruction within the jurisdiction of "N." "N" refers to a nation-state or other political jurisdiction/managed territory.

The entity "a" refers to all of those involved in the attack/crime (which may or may not extend to other parties as will be explained).

Entity "x" refers to a group that "a" is claimed to be a member of, or associated with, in some way. As will be detailed below, "x" and "a" may be conflated deliberately or unconsciously leading to untold horrors.

The objective of "N" is to garner massive and unwavering public support for a planned counter-offensive against an enemy/targeted group (which may be "x"  but which can be erroneously conflated with "a").

The following gives examples of likely claims made, followed by questions to be considered:

Claim: The attack was unprovoked.

Did "N" do anything that could be reasonably interpreted as having provoked an attack beforehand? Were any clear "red lines" crossed? Were actions taken to trigger a backlash or desperation in the (would-be) attackers?

Claim: The attack involved a "failure" (of intelligence, of timely response, defense capabilities, etc.) whereby "N" ostensibly failed to protect an area that it is normally responsible for protecting (e.g., a border area).

How do we know that a claimed "failure to protect" was truly a failure, or designed to (1) allow, or (2) provoke an attack, or both (1) and (2)?

Did nation "N" have the capabilities to protect the area from attack?

Was nation "N" technologically capable of acquiring information about an impending attack? Was "N" forewarned?

If it can be concluded that (1) a clear provocation occurred and/or (2) a security breach was deliberate, a case can be made that nation "N" is complicit in the attack against its own citizens and property.

Membership and Responsibility. Other claims and questions regarding “a” and its alleged association with another group "x."

Who were the attackers? Were any of the attackers caught or identified? Did they all disappear unscathed and without a trace?

How can we be sure that “a" is not a co-opted/controlled group of individuals directed or trained (or given immunity) by nation "N"? Is group “a” being used as a tool to engineer horrific events that can be used as a pretext to retaliate for “the preservation of security” while acquiring additional land or water resources? (see Motivations below)

Claim: The attackers "a" are claimed to be members of "x," where "x" is a collection of individuals as designated by “common” characteristics (e.g., people of same/similar ethnicity, religion, race, national origin, income class, organization, political party or supporters of a political party, militants/justice warriors, protesters, rioters, trade unionists, etc.).

Conflation and Guilt-by-Association Problem. What may be overlooked is any distinction between "a" (the attackers and those complicit in the attack) and members of "x" (the "group" that "a" is deemed to be members of and which by association is assumed to be collectively complicit with "a" the attackers).

A second and difficult distinction is that many members of "x" may be very supportive of "a” which may include “a's" horrific actions (e.g., or reasons of vengeance, hatred by lived experience or indoctrination, etc., ) and believe that "a" "represents" them and their interests---however, this type of "support" does not necessarily make them complicit in the atrocities: How can we assert that all members of "x" are truly complicit with "a"?

If it can be established that "N" controls "a" (even if in a clandestine well-concealed manner), then "a" is a subset of/part of "N" and "N" can be considered complicit in the attack on its own citizens.

Determining Responsibility. By examining these claims and posing such questions, we may be able to determine whether:

(1) "N" is complicit in the attack/crime against its own citizens, and

(2) Retaliation: Any violent counter-response by "N" against "x" (recall that "x" may be conflated with "a" despite the distinction as noted above) could result in the commission of genocide of innocents.

(3) If "N" acquires land or resources owned by members of "x" in this process, "N" has also committed theft of property (see Motivations below).

(4) If by deliberate actions described above, "N" knowingly risks provoking serious conflict with other nations, "N" may be intentionally placing its own citizens as well as those of the other nations in harm’s way.

(5) If N is a client state of (an)other nation(s) (or its leadership significantly controlled by (an)other power(s)) that enable, support, and substantially provide(s) funding for N’s actions, then complicity also applies to such enabling/controlling nations.

Motivations? Given a longer-term perspective, certain motivating factors for N’s actions may eventually be revealed. Is the delivery of benefits for special interest clients involved? For example:  Income for contractors (e.g., military, and other types of security-related contractors including surveillance systems, perimeter fencing, etc.). Territorial Expansion for future development plans.  In retaliation against the attack, was any land or water bodies seized (re: theft)? Later, has this acquired territory been committed to development or exploitation? (e.g., residential real estate or commercial development including for tourist resorts and hotels, extraction of land-based or maritime resources such as oil or gas fields, fishing areas, uranium, lithium (re: Butler, P., 2024)). Are there any corporations or other entities associated with N or N’s ‘puppet master(s)” involved in these activities?

For additional perspectives on geopolitical developments, injustices and proxy wars leading up to late summer 2024, see Rothbard (1967), Johnson (2001) on blowback, Clifton (2021, 2024), Friedman (2023), Hall (2023), Hersh (2024), Mearsheimer (2019, 2023, 2024), Dionisio (2024), Escobar (2024), Fowdy (2024), Gordon and Njoya (2024), Hoppe (2024), Kwiatkowski (2024), McAdams (2024), Paul (2024), Sachs (2023), Schlanger (2024), Stockman (2024), Todd (2024). On regime change operations, war escalations, provocations, and attacks see: Battle (2024) (re: Scott Ritter); Berletic (2024); Billington (2024) re: Jeffrey Sachs; Alexander Mercouris of the Duran); Cunningham (2024); Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) re: “hit lists;” MacGregor (2024) (also re: Eurasia and developments); Miller (2024); Postol (2024); Small and Gallagher (2024) (re: attacks on early-warning radar systems); Schiller Institute (2024), Speed (2024), Ross (2024) on diplomacy, peace proposals, and an international security architecture).

On possible historical evidence of enriched uranium at bomb sites and genetic damage in civilian populations, re: Christopher Busby (greenaudit.org).

For more discussion on land and resource grabs, and special interest clients/political investments, see Kennedy (2022f) re: Econobiology.

2.Camouflage Insurgency Operations

Complex variations on operations are possible and one basic scenario is given here: An insurgency is developed covertly by “X” (e.g., a nation-state or superpower X) that masquerades as an insurgency coordinated by a force, group or power that supposedly no ties with X.  The primary goal is to re-establish dominance over X’s puppet regime that has been showing signs of “disobedience” including by becoming too friendly with an adversary of X that we can call “Y”; this insurgency also can serve to “punish” the puppet leadership for any such transgressions as needed. The consequences of such operations can be prolonged violence and death from the engineered insurgency operations as well as violent counter-responses from the puppet regime. At some point, X can emerge as savior to “resolve differences” and “restore order”; the disobedient puppet falls back in line with X. A variation might be an insurgency that is made to look as if it is clearly backed by X’s adversary Y, causing extreme distrust of Y among X’s puppet leadership to prevent any further possible rapprochement or coalitions/alliances with Y. Controlled media and well-timed media blackouts may also be indispensable towards managing public perceptions of the events towards success of the operations.

Control of Elections. Under the current system of political management via elections, this strategy to undermine the electorate’s decisions does not necessarily involve violence although there may be accompanying so-called “color revolutions” and engineered highly-public protests to increase the perception of broad acceptance for the eventual (planned) outcome of the election(s) and the later seizure of the political apparatus in regime change operations (Benz 2023). Power Elite Preparation. A crop of individual future puppets representing multiple nations must be trained and groomed to assume political power once the election has been either falsely or legitimately won in their respective countries, with remote puppeteer handlers. Ideally this is accomplished so that multiple jurisdictions within a nation are covered (e.g., local, regional, national). With the use of digital technology and overseas servers, it is entirely possible for elections to be subject to adjustments” to alter outcomes as desired. Draining the Electorate. Critically, in politically-managed systems, given the vast amount of financial resources at the disposal of elected officials to disperse to special interests and constituents (via taxes or currency creation), a strong incentive to alter election outcomes is possible, which may naturally induce politically-managed systems to produce election outcomes with a price tag involved. The financial return on election outcomes may reach up to twenty times the original political “investment” for some industries and special interests (Clifton 2021; Hartmann 2022) The new superpower-backed political leadership and the recipients of their taxpayer-funded largesse can be considered a new power elite that progressively drains the resources of the masses in favor of special interests that made political “investments” in exchange for political “services” (e.g. campaign contributions in exchange for various policy changes that benefit them); also see Waal, Alex (de) 2016, re: political marketplace; Tullock 1967, 1993; Krueger 1974 re: rent-seeking; Stockman 2013).  Resource Control. Because of the demand for inputs used in emerging technologies and products, the control of certain natural resources such as rare earths can be critical, driving superpower efforts to especially target certain countries for puppet takeovers.

Forging “Alliances” with Ulterior Motives. This is a form of subterfuge involving establishing superficially good relations with an adversary and/or ostensibly allied nations in various domains and by numerous means.

For further historical perspective on risks inherent in relationships with “friends/allies” see Sun (1917).

Special Interest Fronts: A Multi-Pronged Strategy

Special interests encompass a wide variety of entities controlled by, or with close ties to, a superpower, including entities that operate as fronts to advance superpower aims.

Global Approach. Ostensibly “global” organizations established under the guise of public health and safety are also a potential trojan horse towards eventual domination of the apparatus and governance of nation-states by political elites of an aspiring superpower and aligned special interests (which may include NPOs, NGOs and other organizations such as philanthropies acting as fronts for a superpower); also see Perkins 2005; Pastreich 2023; Kennedy, Jr and Wakefield 2022; Martin 2021, 2023, Watt 2023).  Stripping of National and Individual Sovereignty. In some cases, certain organizations claiming “global” status may seek to expand power by proposing treaties with member nations that will involve loss of nation-state and local sovereignty, and an external enforcement arm to be supplied by the same or another “global” organization controlled by the superpower and corporate special interests.

Global-Local Approach. Development of a global “industry” of which the individual businesses in that industry can be established in target countries. The individual companies in the target country then form part of a new locally-based special interest group that can gain influence over target nation government policy within the target nation while collaborating internationally with other firms in the same “industry” and their governing bodies controlled by the superpower. A similar strategy can be employed with cross-border identity movements as special interests (re: identity politics). For example, this could be infiltration through cultural alignment operations (shape-shifting operations by the superpower to more seamlessly “merge” with the local culture, traditions, and events, of target nations).

Open Borders for Targeted Nations. To clarify, this commentary should not be seen as a criticism of the desire of millions of migrants for a better life elsewhere or to flee conflict in their home countries. It is recognized that political management may allow for mass (legal or illegal) immigration to bring in labor for industry and agricultural special interest clients of political managers, and to build (future) voting blocs; accordingly, a smoother transition to residency may also be politically managed (such as fast-tracking residency/citizenship through the granting of positions in law enforcement and the military or other benefits; the induction of undocumented migrants into the military with the promise of citizenship may also be intended to boost troop levels to fight in foreign wars to advance nation-state imperialist agendas).

Some immigrants (as individuals or representing special interests) may be campaign donors and therefore political investors (“clients”) of political managers to gain residency, citizenship, or other benefits. To clarify, this should not be interpreted to mean that fast-track or residency/citizenship by investment is necessarily undesirable, or that all activities or businesses operated by migrants are somehow nefarious. The principal concerns of coordinated infiltration, destabilization and violence are discussed next; however, it should be emphasized that this type of policy can just as well be entirely orchestrated from within and unrelated to migration.

Coordinated Infiltration, Destabilization and Violence.  Concerns arise from such politically-managed operations that have a high probability of resulting in greater violence and fatalities. First, however, it should be clarified that most people will unfairly focus on the incoming illegal migrants as being the sole source of “the problem,” rather than the role of those orchestrating this process.  Second, it is a mistake to assume that the only source of infiltration can be external; the process may be entirely orchestrated from within by indoctrinating and recruiting a particularly hostile and violent class of domestic individuals to eventually be elevated to positions of power under the controlling political managers, based upon an existing or possibly even a newly-formed doctrine/ideology.

Warning Signs. A key area to consider is whether criminal (or highly unethical) behavior tends to be systematically treated with impunity (including lack of accountability or constant inaction in the face of clear criminality). A long-term coordinated strategy may begin with security breaches (at the local and national level) by the coerced and rigged “transformation” of society of a target nation to exacerbate internal distrust, hostilities, and divisions, that ultimately serves to consolidate power by those engineering this process including through crackdowns to quell any uprising by disfavored groups. An “open border” policy may constitute just one facet of this infiltration process, as well as a ruse for other purposes, such as tacit or possibly even “backdoor” legislative approval of violent activities including involuntary human trafficking under the cover of legitimate business, charitable or protective social services. Mass uncontrolled migration policy can also provide cover for many highly fit non-citizen military-age individuals to be  “mixed in” with other migrants for training and positioning in the target country, including for later deployment in “riot” cells that can be activated as needed for destabilization operations, sabotage of economic infrastructure and to foment internal conflict on cue; such activities may then be deceptively blamed on so-called “illegal migration” although the process has been coordinated from the top through a tacit policy of decriminalized trespassing.. Long-term indoctrination in the school systems to foment hate, politically-managed backing of a two-tiered justice system that treats the crimes of certain groups with extreme leniency, or intentionally bringing in individuals that have values inherently hostile to the target country and/or a tendency towards violence can also be facets of a coordinated infiltration from within or from external sources.

Other warning signs of security breaches include coordinated actions to weaken or incapacitate targeted members of the local population, notably, incapacitation of police and military forces, including by continued administration of toxic injections despite known risks, and subsequent inaction in prosecutions. Another law and order example could be systematic reduction of local merit-based hiring by intentionally discouraging potential applicants through demoralization or discriminatory practices against unquestionably qualified individuals, followed by replacement by large numbers of hostile and violent individuals. Thefts of large quantities of potentially explosive (e.g., ammonium nitrate), highly toxic, or other materials, systematic train derailments, unexplained factory fires and explosions should also be treated as a major security matter, particularly if such incidents are systematically left uninvestigated.  As societal conditions continue to be perceived as worsening, honest and concerned local citizens may justifiably protest or become more vocal about protecting their communities; in response to such community voices, if political managers and the authorities denounce or suppress citizens rather than address their concerns, this is another warning sign. Another possible component of a long-term infiltration strategy can be coerced reduction of a target population via inducement of infertility without informed consent. Moreover, societies can be systematically remolded towards a propensity towards violence through indoctrination of young people in the politically-managed school systems, rooted in teaching youth to despise certain targeted groups (e.g., targeting by religion, race, ethnicity, traditions, values, political beliefs, national origin, income class, etc.) and to embrace a new doctrine advocated by political elites (and their controlled media) for the perpetuation of control, and advancement for the followers of the new doctrine (Lasch 1996). A new crop of the fiercest adherents to the doctrine can then brought into positions of power, adding a layer to the existing power structure to be weaponized against others and forming a larger buffer between the elites who remain firmly in control and the targeted groups they wish to be subjugated.

Credit extension can be designed to perpetuate dependency of target nations on the superpower’s currency and debt denominated in the currency which supports the financial institutions of the creditor nation; if the debt becomes unrepayable and the target country defaults, contractual arrangements may compel the country to remain in the superpower’s orbit and give up sovereignty and control of the indebted assets/infrastructure to the superpower or its transnational corporations. Bailouts and other financial strategies may also be offered and employed as part of a “carrot and stick” strategy as well.

Threat Apparatus: Technological Weaponry. With technological advances, a superpower may threaten (but refrain from) deploying advanced tools against both enemies and allies alike to project power and force compliance, or actually deploy such tools as punishment for acts of "disobedience" against a superpower's directives. The list is non-exhaustive but may include (current, future) technological weaponry in various domains:  Geophysical and atmospheric engineering (e.g., earthquakes, tidal waves, storms, tornadoes, drought/flood, etc., re: Wigington, 2017), biological (bioweapons)/chemical weapons (Boyle 2005, 2022; Martin 2023; Kennedy, Jr. 2023), radiological, directed energy weapons (DEWs), advanced nanotechnological, neurological and psychological operations, drone-assisted and other forms of infrastructure destruction (financial, energy,/transportation, food, manufacturing, etc.), activation of riots (cells), etc. On the targeting of allied nations’ currencies/financial systems see Luongo (2023); on incapacitation of energy and energy-dependent productive infrastructure of allies see Chossudovsky (2023). For historical instances of suspected punishment against allies who go “off-script” or of refraining from taking certain violent actions to ensure compliance see Hudson 2023a; Krainer 2023)

Psychological warfare against targeted political and other figures may also be employed as part of the strategy to play competing superpowers against each other and exert dominance, including against domestic populations (Desmet 2022: Hughes, et al., 2022). This can include the weaponization and abuse of the field of psychology for political purposes as needed for particular operations (Reich 1983 re: USSR; Corbett 2023).

The backing of certain celebrities and influencers can also play a role, as well as blackmail (Webb 2022). On propaganda (perception management) see Ellul (1962), Herman and Chomsky (2002), Hopkins (2022), Pilger (2022), Baud (2023), Taibbi (2023) and on its invisibility see Johnstone (2023).

Concluding Remarks on Path 1. In sum, a Path 1 policy that continues indefinitely and further degenerates into “provoke, undermine and destroy” to attain unipolarity at all costs may threaten humanity far beyond what we may have already seen in history (Fein 2010; Nimmo 2023; Smith, D.M., 2023; Watson Institute 2023a,b).

This grim conclusion based on a Path 1 scenario may be supported by the devastating results of the projections to 2100 presented in the main text above (further details are provided in Appendix 2 next).

Appendix 2: Projections Assumptions Detail

The simulation considers tail risks of violent conflicts (Cirillo, Taleb 2016) and makes assumptions that incorporate historical factors such as war (including war on civilian populations)* Re: The Morrill Tariff 1861/protectionist platform, Lincoln addresses 1861 (also re: Corwin Amendment), 1863, DiLorenzo (2007); Addicott (2023). Also see Brave Heart and DeBruyn (1998); Hallbrook (2014); Zinn (2015); Rwandan genocide 1994; Whitehead (2022); Smith D.M. (2023); Watson Institute (2023a,b), Martin (2023), genocide/democide including engineered famines (Rummel 1997), and other policy origins of famine of the 20^th century (re: Rake 1975; Lofchie 1978, Eicher 1982).

(*) Note that the term “civil war” may serve to de-emphasize the role of central state-sponsored violence against civilian populations.

Assumptions also incorporate anticipated politically-driven infertility and other population-reduction agendas under various guises including public and “reproductive health” through stealth vaccination (re: conjugate vaccines, lack of informed consent; Kennedy, Jr and Wakefield 2022; Nascimiento 2023; Mangiaracina 2024). Also see Martin 2021, 2023; Dowd 2022; Hughes, et al. 2022; Kirsch 2022a, b; Wolf 2022; Chudov 2023 (re:Earth4All, Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth 1972; Watt 2023). 

The growth assumptions for each variable are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) as follows: Population growth at the long-term trend of 1800 to 2022 (this rate of growth is roughly 62% of the more recent trend from 1950-2022 to approximate a long-term reduced growth scenario); GDP growth (nominal) to 85% of trend from 1960-2022; and GDP growth per capita (nominal) to 85% of trend from 1960-2022. The question may arise how these assumptions result in such precipitous drops in these variables by the year 2100; this stems from the destruction of compounding growth over time (i.e., growth emerging from previous growth, successively), even where small reductions are assumed in the rate of compounding.

Appendix 3

Transition from Legacy System Dependency to Self-Sufficiency (Kennedy 2022c and in particular Kennedy 2022f on econobiology; also, re: parallel economic systems). In the breakdown of politically-managed systems and transition to economic activity, there is a restoration of real income to those from who it was extracted along with a reduction of the income of beneficiaries of the politically-managed system. Because by the later phases the system has typically expanded to the point that much of the population has become dependent as beneficiaries through the redistribution subsystem and special interest benefits, there is a complex dislocation and reallocation process involved.  In advance of this eventuality, for most of the population regardless of (former) beneficiary status, building some level of self-sufficiency including having marketable skills, services, or goods to offer is seen as vital for when the politically-managed system can no longer be relied upon.

These results are shared as a public service; if helpful consider paying it forward by adding something extra to any donations made to reputable charities, preferably with priority given to the most vulnerable, including defenseless animals. Organizational reputations may be researched through sites such as charitynavigator.org.

The author may also hold positions in securities of companies, including through ETFs, which may have been covered herein. The discussion and any visuals may contain significant errors, are subject to revisions and are provided 'as is' solely for informational purposes, not for trading or investment advice. This preliminary analysis is exploratory; no claims are made as to the validity of data, assumptions, theoretical models, and methodologies; results may be based on prior data that do not reflect the most current market or other events.

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