Complex Systems Notes 1: Polarity and the Architecture of Political Management
Summary
This study is part of a series exploring a conceptual model of politically-managed systems and their positive polarity dynamic.
Although not necessarily apparent in early phases, political management can give rise to catastrophic outcomes within economies and populations, particularly in later phases.
Understanding politically-managed systems may help us chart their potential trajectory and plan better for our economic future.
For a Summary Definition of political management, detail on underlying drivers of its positive feedback loop, and proposed solutions towards economic management via decoupled parallel systems and alternative communities see a later study on econobiology (Kennedy 2022c), linked here.
The Appendix provides additional visual references.
Introduction
This study presents a conceptual model of politically-managed systems. A fundamental characteristic is the system’s positive polarity which consists of positive feedback loops that are self-reinforcing and inherently unsustainable, expanding interventions into the economic system to broaden political support and funding. Although the extent of dislocations may vary across economies, this self-reinforcing dynamic continues until an overshoot and later phases when eventually the confluence of adverse outcomes caused by politically-managed policy interventions including excessive spending culminate in breakdowns involving potentially devastating social, financial and possible monetary crises, particularly in later phases. Economies may be impacted to varying degrees; those with overvalued exchange rates and weak productive capacity may face far more devastating later-phase breakdowns. The model is not to be viewed as categorically “correct”, but as a guide for possible outcomes.
Conceptual Model Overview
This section and linked video introduce the model of political management, including political interventions, who benefits, who is harmed, and the impacts on the economy. The structure is based on the original version of Kennedy (2017). The table and diagram of polarity are shown in the Appendix (A2).
Political management consists of three subsystems: Subsystem 1 redistribution, subsystem 2 fiat or overriding law, and subsystem #3 monetary system. Note that the circles in the first column indicate policies that carry a high risk of a dangerous outcome. The figure “1” in the table refers to a likelihood of a particular outcome taking place, but not necessarily a certainty.
In the redistributive subsystem, funds are decoupled from citizens, or taxpayers to redistribute to others (and even back to the taxpayers in a lesser proportion) in exchange for support for the politically-managed system. Over time, by increasing dependence on redistributed funds as a source of income, broad-based support for the politically-managed system can be secured, to a point.
Fiat or overriding law is designed to establish interventions and regulations that grant certain groups and special interests legal monopolies and other advantages in exchange for their support for the representatives of the politically-managed system.
The monetary subsystem generally consists of a currency monopoly and especially in latter phases helps fill in the gap when tax funding is no longer sufficient to cover the politically-managed expenditures; monetization of the debt and manipulation of the cost of debt are key features of this subsystem; low-cost debt and expansion of currency units can secure support for the political system initially but breaks down in later phases as constant debasement of the currency can result in high inflation and other economic dislocations including debt defaults and financial crises, followed by monetary crises.
Linkages and Polarity Detail. The positive polarity of political management connects to the economic system through extraction and the granting of monopoly controls to special interests. Political management contrasts with the negative polarity of an economic system which is counterbalancing (or self-correcting), This counterbalancing dynamic is rooted largely in the pricing system whereby rising prices (costs) induce conservation of resources and falling prices signal abundance; reduced income may also signal to producers that changes (in price, quality) must be made to restore consumer demand.
Video: Complex Systems Part 1: Overview of Political Management and Polarity
Political Management in Further Depth
The second video linked below details a fundamental contradiction whereby the politically-managed system’s own internal dynamic (positive polarity) is used to justify perpetuation of the system to fight the problems the system itself generates. The complexity makes this contradictory nature difficult to discern to those of us within the system, whether we are beneficiaries or victims, or both. The mechanisms that maintain the positive polarity is described briefly below (until breakdown in the later phases). A sampling of sources found in the References section below that relate to topics of this study is provided in this section. Note that there is some overlap among sub-topics below, and the listing is not comprehensive.
Extractions. The draining of resources from the economy is achieved by confiscation in certain ways, some visible, others less so; some examples:
(a) Derivative Resources (based on imputed ownership fee extractions): The fees extracted are potentially far beyond that required to cover the actual costs of the community/regional management services delivered, and that exceed voluntary consent (simplistically referred to as taxes). Excess extractions raise costs to citizen-residents and non-beneficiaries and raises income for special-interest clients/beneficiaries; also refer to the Summary Definition, Toolkit, #2 on Imputed Ownership Fee Extractions in Kennedy (2022c).
(b) Monopoly Currency creation (also re: debt monetization): Financing of public debt issuance, debasement of the monopoly currency, destruction of purchasing power reflected as a rise in prices (aka “inflation”): This leads to less affordability, but benefits special interests (re: Fiscal policy, public/corporate debt, money and banking system: Alesina 2013, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) 2015, Barro 1974, Barua 2019, Bird 1974, Borio 2014, Brainard 2015, Cantillon 1755 , Christ (Carl) 1968,1979, El-Erian 2016, Fabozzi 1992, Fitzgerald 2019, Grant 1996, 2008, Huerta de Soto 2012, Juselius 2017, Kennedy 1998, 2020, Kotlikoff 2015, Macleod 2024, McKinsey Global Institute 2015, Mitchell 2017, Rothbard 2008, Shedlock 2017, Sigurjónsson 2015, Spitznagel 2017, Takeo 2017, White 2013, Wicksell 1898; on bank accounting (FASB) see Kenton 2020, Meinert 2015. *Note: Extractive income sources may also include arbitrary fines, penalties, and other types of confiscation (e.g., civil asset forfeiture); extractions may also involve the return of currency that has been created (re: monopoly currency creation).
2. Granting of legal monopoly control (including regulatory barriers): Legislation and policies that prevent potential competing entities from offering consumers lower cost and better-quality goods and services: This also tends to lead to less affordability, lower quality, and benefits for special interests. (re: rent-seeking, Krueger, 1974, Tullock, 1967; price controls Coyne 2015, Murphy 2022; (regulatory) bureaucracy and special interests Andrews 2017, Baumol 1965, Berman 1983, Clifton 2021, Eisenhart 1989, Herrick 2016, McGillis 2019, Nordhaus 2006, Shedlock 2017.
Self-Perpetuation. In sum, as a system dynamic, problems generated by the policies of politically-managed systems justify perpetuation of the politically-managed system to continue to tackle those problems.
Ideology, Education, and Indoctrination can play an important role to provide support or justification of systems, and/or as part of collaboration with special interests and groups; a non-exhaustive list found in the References: Bauer 1981, Brave Heart 1998, Crawford 1982, Gatto 2000, Goldberg 2009, Hayek 1944,1981, Hoffer 1951, Lofchie 1978, Marx 1867, Mill (John Stuart) 1859, North 1989, Quarcoo 2021, Rake (1975), Rawls 1999, Reisman 2014, Rummel 1997, Rushdoony 2012, Schoeck 1987, Schultz 1978, Solzhenitsyn 1973, Sowell 2007, 2010, Tucker 2017, Young 1982. *Note on indoctrination: An important component of indoctrination involves the severing of bonds between parent and child to be replaced with approved representatives of the new doctrine; This separation* and replacement process is designed to eliminate competing/alternative sources of information for the younger generations. (*) Separation also may include politically-managed third-party intervention (i.e., politically-driven social pressure on the parents) to induce conformity with the new agenda/doctrine for fear of losing their jobs or social status, even if the actions taken by the parents are against the child’s interests.
Systems and System Dynamics
Systems of political management can be observed from a broad number of perspectives and geographic localities, including business/commercial, economic, financial, governmental, historical (d)evolution,, law/legal/judicial, monetary, and social: Antonopoulos 2017, Aristotle c.350 B.C., Barzun 2001, Bastiat 1850, Bauer 1981, Becker 1976, Bell 2014, Benson 2011, Burja 2020, Christ (Carl) 1968,1979, Clarida 2017, Clifton 2021, Codevilla 2021, Coyne 2015, Denison 1974, Eicher 1982, Eisenhart 1989, El-Erian 2016, Fama 1983, Ferguson 2014, Forrester 1971, Friedman (David) 2001, Grant 1996, 2008, Gulbransen 2017, Gurri 2018, Higgs 2013, Hoffer 1951, Kennedy 2017, Kotlikoff 2015, Leoni 1961, Locke 1689, Lofchie 1975, McAfee (Andrew) 2019, Mill (James) 1808, Mill (John Stuart) 1848, Mises 1920, 1931, Murphy 2022, Perkins 2005, Petersen 1982, Quigley 2004, Rake 1975, Rauch 1994, Ricardo 1826, Rickards 2017, 2021, Rifkin 1996, Ropke 1936, Rummel 1997, Rushdoony 2012, Sanandaji 2015, Sandis/Taleb 2014, Schultz 1978, Serra 1613, Smith (Adam) 1776, Solow 2010, Solzhenitsyn 1973, Srinivasan 2022, Stevens 1981, Stockman 2013, Theil 2014, Van Creveld 1999, Van Der Pijl 2022, Voslensky 1984, (de) Waal 2016, Walker 1888, Zinn 2015. On Theory of Systems*: Fetter 1914, Fisher 1930, Forrester 1971, Hayek 1944, 1981, Grice-Hutchinson 1952, Hazlitt 1960, Keynes 1936, McCloskey 2017, Olson 1971, Rawls 1999, Reisman 1996, Sandis/Taleb 2014, Say 1803, Schumpeter 1954, Smith (Adam) 1776, *Economic System Dynamics: Says Law (production enabling consumption): Say 1803, Mill 1808 as cited in Hutt 1974, Neumann 1946, Sowell 1973, Hutt 1974, Macleod 2023. On modeling of systems and events, Bar-Yam 2017, Cirillo/Taleb 2015 (on conflicts), Cook 2008, Cooke 2014, Dixon/Jorgenson 2013, Douady 2012, Fellman 2016 (on conflicts), Leamer 1983, Lucas 1976, Neumann 1946, Romer 2012, Sayama 2015, Taleb 2017, 2020, Wickens 2011. On the pricing system and distortions: Coyne (price controls) 2015, De La Calle 1544, Friedman (Milton) 2001, Hutt 1983, Kennedy 2020, Perry 2017, Schultz 1978, Stigler 1987).
Video: Complex Systems Part 2: Political Management and Polarity Detail
Proximate Current Status and Prospects
Unsustainability and Breakdown. In the latter phases of political management, a citizenry highly dependent on politically-managed flows of funds and monopolies granted to special interests can face severe hardships as multiple political interventions produce a confluence of adverse outcomes, combined with excessive political spending to secure the support of special interests,
In the overshoot phase (marked by fiat monopoly currency proliferation and fiscal default even if undeclared) as debt from overspending is monetized and driving inflationary bursts. A general malaise may already be palpable as the overshoot phase nears, with rising authoritarian tendencies combined with lawlessness and overreach to serve special interests for political support (Codevilla 2021, Gurri 2018, Van Der Pijl 2022). Concerning the decline and fall of civilizations see Barzun (2001), Burja (2020) and Van Creveld (1999). Monetary policy and central banking also may play a key role in long-term economic decay via the unnatural widening of borrowing spreads.
A delay and reversal phase ensue, characterized by signs of breakdown: Economically disruptive countermeasures and controls, public protest, regional out-migration, collapse of social order, mores and behaviors, and crackdowns mixed with the potential for engineered lawlessness to gain public support for more authoritarian measures. The reversal phase may in part be described by attempts to reduce the oversized role of political management in the economy (see the next section for more on this phase).
See the tables in the Appendix (A1) for detail, in particular Subsystem 2 and 3 for particularly dangerous policy outcomes.
Reversal Phase Transitions. Interim actions taken in the reversal phase may be expected to reduce the oversized role of political management in the economy (e.g. downsizing of politically-managed entities, deregulation, privatizations, government asset and land sales to the private sector). These are part of a process of returning to economic fundamentals; however, it should be emphasized that this phase is distinct from transitioning to an economic system characterized by negative polarity.
As part of this reversal phase, new faces of political management are selected, driven by a combination of outrage, despair, and a backlash against the previous and existing order, seen widely as corrupt and even criminal. This “new management” consists of a mix of representatives; some co-opted in advance, claiming to represent the people but who continue to serve special interests and preserve positive polarity towards continued expansion and consolidation of centralized power. Other representatives, possibly under the banner of (political) decentralization with a localism emphasis to replace the prior national-level concentrations of power may genuinely intend to implement populist platforms that undo previous consolidation and controls in favor of returning (economic) power to individuals and/or smaller administrative sub-units.
However, if political management under decentralization is kept largely intact, the systemic problems inherent in positive polarity can be expected to persist.
Economic Management. As noted in the previous section, the reversal phase actions of political management are distinct from a transition to economic management. Removal of legal monopolies (regional, judicial, commercial, educational, other) allowing residents and consumers the choice among competing alternatives allows economically-managed societies to function. Technological tools may be a driving force of the development of economic systems that progressively emerge outside of politically-managed systems. This may take the form of independent management entities that cover disparate areas that are can be both geographically proximate or very distant (Srinivasan 2022).
Part 2 of this series focuses on the more dangerous types of policies potentially generated by political management and makes a comparison of politically-managed systems and economic systems
APPENDIX
The videos linked in the main text above and in Part 2 of this series may also provide further detail for the visuals in this Appendix.
A1. Conceptual Model of Political Management: Subsystems, Policy Interventions and Phases
A2. Economic and Political Management: Negative Polarity (right), Political Positive Polarity (left) and Linkage
Note: The expanded version of the graphic above incorporates the monetary system and is presented in Part 3 of this series Kennedy (2022a, Part 3); that graphic is reproduced here for reference:
A3. Summary Definition of Political Management
This topic is available in the Appendix of Kennedy 2022c on econobiology and may be added here for quick reference after finalized updates.
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These results are shared as a public service; if helpful consider paying it forward by adding something extra to any donations made to reputable charities, preferably with priority given to the most vulnerable, including defenseless animals. Organizational reputations may be researched through sites such as charitynavigator.org.
The author may also hold positions in securities of companies, including through ETFs, which may have been covered herein. The discussion and any visuals may contain significant errors, are subject to revisions and are provided 'as is' solely for informational purposes, not for trading or investment advice. Where concerns are raised about laws and regulations that are features of political management this should not imply that non-compliance is categorically appropriate, apart from actions that result in violations of the right of self-defense, privacy, and bodily autonomy. This preliminary analysis is exploratory; no claims are made as to the validity of data, assumptions, theoretical models, and methodologies; results may be based on prior data that do not reflect the most current market or other events.
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Acknowledgements to systemdynamics.org, social complexity discussion group, and the Taipei Institute of Banking and Finance.